CIA report: "Israel will fall in 20 years". What do you think about it (and please give logical answers)?

Question

http://www.sfbayview.com/2009/cia-report-israel-will-fall-in-20-years/

As an American Jew, I have a feeling America's doom will spell doom for Israel, looking at the fact that America is the biggest supporter of Israel. Afghanistan and Iraq have been failures, we have suffered enormously. Israel depends on the taxpayer's money of Americans, but with the economic decline of America is today's world might result in Israel's doom. Israel has incurred the wrath of the whole Muslim world with its activities in Palestine, and the sheer number of opponents to Israel are increasing tenfold even here. Please don't talk about "God Loves Israel" or "Israel will die", I am agnostic and don't care what is written in the Torah. I care about America, not Israel.

Answer 1

i doubt this report exists outside the minds of the iranians and their mouth piece...press tv



press tv is a propaganda tool for iran and is laughable in its journalism.....it even employs that disgraceful man george galloway......



ignore this silliness it is just wishful thinking.....not mine i add

Answer 2

Actually, as is alluded to in the postscript of the article you linked to, there is considerable doubt that the CIA ever conducted such a study. As they acknowledge, the original source for the claim that the CIA conducted this study was Iran's Press TV, which is not a legitimate news source. Saying that source for Press TV's claim, one Franklin Lamb (whoever he may be), stands by the claim is not much of a confirmation. As is the case, the contents on this alleged study are not public and the CIA has denied ever making such a study. And I am not sure where you get the idea that Iraq is a failure (what is this? 2007?) and whether the USA's foray into Afghanistan is a failure is also up in the air (ask me again in 10 years). And even if they are to be considered failures, I do not understand what you mean by "America has suffered enormously from it". And for the record, Israel has "not incurred the wrath of the whole Muslim world by its activities". Israel has the wrath of many because Israel merely EXISTS. Please examine the past 60 or so years for a prime example of that. In other words, what is at issue here is not what Israel does or allegedly does but the basic inability of certain parties to accept its presence. That is one of the primary reasons why their is no peace.

Answer 3

It seems apparent that those in the CIA who are responsible for that opinion are expecting a nuclear holocaust in the Middle East. Either that or they have grossly underestimated the Israelis and their defenses. You can bet the ranch that before the fall of Israel there will be a nearly complete annihilation of civilization in the Middle East. That is a sure thing and you can take that bet to the bank. First and foremost, before any other, Israel's allegiance is to it's own citizens and the survival the Jewish State of Israel in the Holy Land. The mindset in Israel is that every citizen is a soldier and you can be sure that they will defend the State of Israel until, if necessary, the last man, woman, and child dies in battle. If the CIA does not know that about Israel then they do not know anything about Israel.

Answer 4

I was surprised that a newspaper that wasn't Arab or Persian was taking the "report". However, it doesn't change that this "report" wasn't given by the CIA. Instead, the first ones to break out this claim was the highly flawed Press TV, a Persian government-owned news agency that tries to reach out to the English speaking world. Their credibility is sh*t, and they are jealous of Israel. Why else would they copy a picture of Israeli technology and call it Iranian?



To this day, the CIA has not made this claim, and Press TV still continues to be a sketchy news organization (like their government). As an "American Jew" (I'm a little doubtful on both words), you should realize Israel is not dependent on charity (unlike many Palestinians).

Answer 5

Israel absolutely will not fall in 20 years. This idea shows a misunderstanding of just how much better equipped Israel is than its neighbors. Israel employs some of the best training and newest military technology of any nation in the world. By contrast, Israel's neighbors are largely impoverished and stuck in a third-world technological rut, often using weapons developed by the Soviet Union more than 50 years ago.



In Israel's war against Egypt, it was not uncommon for one Israeli pilot to destroy dozens of enemy fighters, due entirely to technological capability. If anything, the biggest problem Israel faces is controlling its military so as not to kill too many innocent people in its many conflicts.



America will not fall either. True, if we continue to bail out banks without restoring Glass-Steagal or similar regulations, America will soon go bankrupt and will be unable to pay pensions or expand its military. This will result in major class disparity and a global depression. But America wouldn't do this if other countries didn't do it too, so even amidst a global depression, America would still be top dog.



The only way America could fall is by starting a really big, really stupid war and losing. Just watch who you vote for.

Answer 6

Check where this story is originated from. The first time this article appeared was in Iranian newspaper, and they conveniently forgot to list their sources (other then "CIA report", that is). I really doubt such report ever existed.



As for "Israel depends on the taxpayer's money of Americans" - not really. Look at the numbers - Israeli's GDP was $199 Billion as of 2008 ( from http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:ISR&dl=en&hl=en&q=israel+gdp ), US sends about $2.5 billion a year, and that number is on decline ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_aid_to_Israel.gif ). I have a strong suspicion they might survive without Uncle Sam.



As for "Israel has incurred the wrath of the whole Muslim world" - not like Muslim world liked them before that, so no change there.

Answer 7

Good points there.

Yes I believe that the "United States" will fall sometime in the future and that Israel will suffer along with the states failure.

But I do not think that the Israelites will lose. Israel's passion is far greater than the hatred of the Arabians and the muslims. They will suffer to extremes but I don't think they will lose to the Arabians, nor the islamic idealists.

I've been reading in the mainstream media about the coming demise of "The New Rome" and it seems plausible; but will it actually happen? Let's give it another generation before we make that bold statement.

Answer 8

I think it's entirely possible. Israel is in a pretty unenviable geographic position, entirely surrounded by countries which are at best neutral towards it, at worst openly hostile. Their population base is very low compared to these neighbours, and they don't have a substantial industrial base.



If the USA reduced or ended the aid they give Israel, it could well slide into a position of not being able to survive financially. Once that happened gradual absorption of its territories by its neighbouring countries would probably only be a matter of time.



Here's some info from the CIA website: note the parts marked *** :-



Israel has a technologically advanced market economy. It depends on imports of crude oil, grains, raw materials, and military equipment. Despite limited natural resources, Israel has intensively developed its agricultural and industrial sectors over the past 20 years. Cut diamonds, high-technology equipment, and agricultural products (fruits and vegetables) are the leading exports.



***Israel usually posts sizable trade deficits, which are covered by large transfer payments from abroad and by foreign loans.



***Roughly half of the government's external debt is owed to the US, its major source of economic and military aid.



Israel's GDP, after contracting slightly in 2001 and 2002 due to the Palestinian conflict and troubles in the high-technology sector, grew about 5% per year from 2003-07. The global financial crisis of 2008-09 spurred a brief recession in Israel, but the country entered the crisis with solid fundamentals - following years of prudent fiscal policy and a series of liberalizing reforms - and a resilient banking sector, and the economy has rebounded quickly. Following GDP growth of 4% in 2008, Israel's GDP contracted 0.3% in 2009 but is expected to expand in 2010. The global economic downturn affected Israel's economy primarily through reduced demand for Israel's exports - which account for about 45% of the country's GDP - in the United States and EU, Israel's top trading partners. The Israeli Government responded to the recession by implementing a fiscal stimulus package and an aggressive expansionary monetary policy - including cutting interest rates to record lows, purchasing government bonds, and intervening in the foreign currency market.

Answer 9

There is a growing Anti-Israeli movement here in the USA. Just read some of the questions and answers here on Yahoo. With all of this hatred towards Israel, i guess it is possible that one day the backlash could grow out of control and lead to a total abandonment and support for Israel from America-which would lead to Israels downfall.

Its really a sad thing-Israel is one of the few allies we have in the Middle East.

Answer 10

Im sorry if my answer is not what you expect to get but i actually believe things are different. If Israel falls it will spell out DISASTER for all other nations. Israel is the home of Gods choosen people and he will protect them. When anything really happens to Israel the rapture WILL happen and those that are left behind are going to suffer non imaginable pain.

Answer 11

i think even though America's economy is worsening, Israel will never get the complete boot. Israel is important for the united states as a partner and especially its geographical position.

Answer 12

The government in America needs to focus on its own problems (ex:high unemployment and poverty, enormous debt, its broken health care system).